MAY 1, 2020
So here we are, amid a global pandemic of a disease called COVID-19, caused by a virus known as SARS-CoV-2. It’s terrible, and many people are suffering—suffering the disease, and suffering economic and social hardships related to the shutdowns necessitated by the disease. I’m relatively lucky: self-isolated with my wife, our two dogs, our cat, and our python, and all six of us are accustomed to working from home.
Many journalists, and some of my friends, have been asking me: “Were you surprised when this began?” I wasn’t surprised. Others have asked: “How does it feel to be prescient?” (My first thought: "I'd rather be wrong.") Anyway, I wasn’t prescient; I merely listened carefully to a select group of disease scientists, ten years ago, while I was researching my book Spillover (W.W. Norton, 2012), and I reported their well-informed predictions about the prospects of a “Next Big One,” a punishing global pandemic. What they told me back then, if you assemble their bits of wisdom and foresight into a single consensual summary (as I tried to do, over the course of the book), was this: Yes, there will be a Next Big One. It will be caused by a virus. That virus will be new to humans, coming out of a wild animal. What kind of animal? Very possibly a bat. What kind of virus? Very possibly an influenza virus or a coronavirus. Under what circumstances would the virus get into humans? Some situation of close, disruptive contact between humans and wild animals—such as in or around a wet market in, oh, for instance, China.
In early January of this year I was making plans to depart for Tasmania, Australia’s island state, for three weeks of research on Tasmanian devils and a strange form of contagious cancer that has been killing them wholesale in recent decades. This research was for a book that I’m writing about cancer as an evolutionary phenomenon. As I readied for the trip, I must have missed the earliest emails from ProMED, an infectious-disease reporting system to which I subscribe, about “an unidentified


down, landed, and gathered a pretty good haul (Matt had, that is; I wasn't a very proficient buffalo-poop finder) in the form of a brown glob here, a greenish-gray smear there, from which Matt would do DNA analysis back in the lab. His analysis would show which forms of vegetation—native grasses, exotic weeds, both?—these buffalo had been eating. We lifted off, landed a second time, and within a few yards of the heli we nearly stepped on this big, gorgeous snake. She was moving slowly, like a channel of laval, trying to burrow as deeply beneath the grass as she could, as though she were wary of us . . . or embarrassed to be admired. (I say "she" because our pilot, Mike Pingo, told me that African rock pythons this large are usually female.) First we saw her tail, then traced forward a few yards to her midsection, and then—holy cow, this is her head, way the hell up here? After due appreciation, we left her in peace, of course, and flew back to camp. It was Matt's last morning in the field, and he had to pack his specimens, grab his gear, catch a Cessna from the park's airstrip, and connect to his flights to the U.S. And I had to finish what I was doing—researching this story on Gorongosa and its remarkable recovery from devastation during the long Mozambican civil war.

halts and incoming traffic may proceed. Toward the head of the valley rises Tinguiririca Volcano, a shapely cone. Around the hot springs are clustered a few simple clapboard hotels and rental cabañas for tourists and Chilean family getaways, a sleek compound for workers on the nearby hydroelectric project, and a derelict seven-story sanatorium that was built in the 1930s, for treating TB patients with salubrious mountain air, but abandoned after the discovery of penicillin, which worked better. I’ve come here with two evolutionary biologists, John McCutcheon of the University of Montana and Claudio Veloso of the University of Chile. They are armed and dangerous.
begun, and in the two other affected countries, Liberia and Sierra Leone; there was guarded confidence that those efforts would soon bring the outbreak to an end. Some of the expert responders from overseas went home, to the CDC in Atlanta and elsewhere. Then in late May came a disconcerting surge. The incidence of new cases rose abruptly. Traditional funeral practices and other factors allowed the virus to spread; response efforts, facilities, and supplies turned out to be insufficient. Sick people were traveling—across borders among the three countries, and from the countryside to towns. By mid-June, the disease had reached Liberia’s capital, Monrovia. You know what happened next: Instead of an end, there was a geometrical getaway, an explosion of cases, as the outbreak became an epidemic.
Thirty-nine years
The 2014 epidemic of Ebola virus disease in West Africa is unlike any Ebola event ever seen before. In fact, as of this writing, it’s already ten times larger in terms of case fatalities—ten times more punishing to Africans, ten times more scary and befuddling to people around the world—than any single outbreak of an ebolavirus (there are five kinds) during the previous known history of the disease. The peculiarly unfortunate circumstances that allowed this outbreak to simmer for months and then explode in the three countries first affected, and especially in Liberia, include weakened governance after decades of civil turmoil, inadequate health-care infrastructure, shortage of trained health-care workers and simple barrier-nursing supplies, population density and poverty in the capital cities, suspicion of Western medicine, and traditional funerary practices. Those factors, and the progress of the epidemic, have been charted in some of the best of the news coverage, including 




based at the University of Chicago, who studies outbreak populations of forest insects. His work involves trying to understand the extreme boom-and-bust cycles of species such as the gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar), which explodes occasionally into huge infestations, defoliates trees throughout a region, and then suddenly crashes. After a period of years at low population, another gypsy moth outbreak begins, the numbers increase suddenly and grotesquely, the infestation peaks for a year or two—and then comes another crash. The main factor driving the crash phase of the cycle is viral infection, killing gypsy moths like a medieval plague. That's why I recently went to see Dwyer at his office on the UC campus. I thought his research and his ideas might help inform the final chapter of my book in progress, which concerns the ecology and evolution of scary viruses—the ones that kill humans, not gypsy moths. The book will appear next year, under the title Spillover.
Dwyer is a rare combination: a highly sophisticated math guy who creates mathematical models of ecological processes, and a field man who still goes into the forest, collecting his own data. He also runs a lab, in which he and his grad students and postdocs can watch the moth-virus interaction in its excruciating stages. The virus in question is called nucleopolyhedrovirus (NPV). There's a whole group of NPVs, some infecting such other forest insects as the Douglas-fir tussock moth and the Western tent caterpillar. This one is specifically adapted to kill gypsy moths. It consumes them from within, it dissolves them, it virtually melts them down—the way Ebola virus supposedly (but not in reality, only in the pop literature of Ebola hype) melts a human body. For a gypsy moth, it's no hype. "They pick up the virus," Dwyer told me, "they go splat on a leaf."
I've been living what feels like a Dream Vacation this summer: attending some of America's foremost rodeos. In August it was the Omak Stampede in central Washington. A week later I was at Crow Fair, in the town of Crow Agency, Montana. Now I'm here, along with 15,000 exuberant rodeo fans, for the Pendleton Round-Up. All the motels have been booked for months (I was lucky to get a room through the kindness of the Round-Up media folks), and downtown Pendleton looks like a cross between Bourbon Street in New Orleans, Beale Street in Memphis, and a Resistol Hats sales conference in, um, northeastern Oregon. During the day, people actually go watch the rodeo. That finishes in late afternoon, to leave time for partying. Everybody is friendly. The odd things about this particular Dream Vacation are that 1) it's not my dream (it must be somebody else's, misdirected to me through some neuro-ethereal mix-up), and 2) it's not a vacation. I'm on assignment for National Geographic, researching a story on the role of the horse in Native American cultures.
Bonobo refuge on the outskirts of Kinshasa. It's an orphanage and halfway house for bonobos that have been captured, or grown up in captivity, and been rescued by an extraordinary woman named Claudine Andre, who runs the place. Some of those animals are now being released to the wild—under carefully restricted conditions, into habitat empty of other bonobos. The Lola bonobos are quite familiar with human contact. My photographer colleague for this assignment, Christian Ziegler (that's him in the olive fatigues), had spent a week at the refuge before going to the wild and so,

